Global Health Action

Background: Climate change is an escalating global health threat, with sub-Saharan Africa disproportionately affected due to entrenched spatial inequalities, high exposure to environmental hazards, and limited adaptive capacity. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events (EWEs), including floods and cyclones, are reshaping the material and social conditions of place, with implications for mental health and wellbeing. However, evidence remains limited, particularly multi-country qualitative research that examines how mental health impacts are produced through lived experiences of place in contexts of recurring environmental disruption and structural vulnerability. This study explored the mental health and wellbeing impacts of EWEs among individuals with lived experience of such events in Mozambique, Burkina Faso, South Africa, and Kenya, using participatory methods that centred community narratives and place-based accounts of everyday life. Methods: This qualitative study employed digital storytelling as a participatory visual method to examine how EWEs are experienced and narrated across diverse socio-spatial contexts. A total of 37 participants (8 to 10 per country) were recruited from rural, peri-urban, and informal urban settlements with recent exposure to flooding or cyclone events. Participants produced digital stories during facilitated five-day workshops. These narratives were analysed using inductive and deductive thematic analysis informed by Braun and Clarke's framework, with attention to the spatial and relational production of distress and coping. Results: Across Mozambique, Burkina Faso, South Africa, and Kenya, findings show that the mental health impacts of EWEs are deeply embedded in place-based conditions and are cyclical, cumulative, and relational rather than confined to discrete disaster events. Participants described how repeated environmental disruptions reconfigured everyday life in place, generating ongoing uncertainty, anticipatory anxiety during rainfall periods, and acute fear during floods and cyclones. Loss of housing, livelihoods, infrastructure, and social anchors of place contributed to enduring psychological distress, which was frequently reactivated by subsequent environmental cues such as heavy rain, wind, and deteriorating physical environments. Persistent anxiety, hypervigilance, sleep disturbance, and emotional distress were reported across all sites. While social and community networks constituted critical infrastructures of care within place, these were often simultaneously overwhelmed as entire communities experienced shared disruption. Limited and delayed institutional responses further compounded spatial and social precarity. Conclusions: This study provides a comparative participatory account of how EWEs shape mental health through their embeddedness in place across diverse sub-Saharan African contexts. The findings demonstrate that psychological distress is produced through the interaction of repeated environmental exposure, structural inequality, and disrupted place-based infrastructures of daily life, rather than emerging solely as a post-disaster outcome. These results underscore the need for climate-responsive mental health and psychosocial support that is integrated into place-based disaster risk governance, alongside strengthened social protection and community infrastructure that can sustain wellbeing in contexts of recurring environmental instability.

Ethnic minority and migrant populations experienced disproportionately severe COVID-19 outcomes across Europe, yet the mechanisms underlying these disparities, particularly inequities in healthcare access, remain insufficiently understood at the patient level. This qualitative study examines healthcare-seeking behaviours and access to care among ethnically diverse patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Amsterdam between 2020 and 2022, and the contextual factors shaping their pathways to care. Twenty adults of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, Ghanaian, and Dutch ethnic backgrounds, all hospitalised with COVID-19, were interviewed using a semi-structured retrospective approach to reconstruct individual care pathways from symptom onset to hospitalisation. Data were analysed thematically, guided by the Candidacy Framework and the Health Belief Model. Pandemic-induced structural disruptions, including healthcare system strain, capacity shortages, absent care protocols, and fragmented referral pathways, constituted the primary barriers to care across all ethnic groups. Participants with longer hospital stays tended to be older, less educated, and with more comorbidities, yet reported fewer barriers once hospitalised, as disease severity triggered prioritisation. Those with shorter stays or emergency department visits without admission encountered greater difficulties, including repeated discharge despite worsening symptoms. Language barriers and prior negative experiences with healthcare services compounded access challenges for some participants with migrant backgrounds, though pandemic phase and disease severity were the dominant determinants across the sample. Inequities in access to care were driven primarily by pandemic-induced structural factors rather than ethnic background. Pre-existing vulnerabilities among migrant groups, including reduced institutional trust and language barriers, intensified these structural barriers for some. These findings are directly relevant for equity-sensitive pandemic preparedness: crisis response frameworks must explicitly address structural accessibility alongside targeted support for groups facing compounding disadvantage.

Background Personal choice, the opportunity to select an action from available options, free from external constraint, significantly affects health, risks, and treatment needs. Unhealthy lifestyles contribute substantially to global disease burden, pressuring health systems and reigniting debate about individual responsibility for health. The COVID-19 pandemic brought these debates into sharp focus. In South Africa's private health sector, vaccine hesitancy persisted where vaccines were freely available, raising questions about fairness when avoidable costs are imposed on others within pooled insurance. This paper develops and applies a structured framework to assess the case for applying personal responsibility(policies linking contributions, coverage, or costs to factors under individual control) using COVID-19 vaccination in a South African insured population. Methods We employed a multi-part approach drawing on administrative claims and vaccination data from approximately 550,000 insured members (March 2020 to December 2022). We examined vaccination on hospitalisation, utilisation, and expenditure; evaluated fairness from utilitarian (cost-effectiveness and cost-utility) and luck egalitarian (choice vs cost distribution) perspectives; assessed the practical feasibility of responsibility-based mechanisms; and integrated findings through a decision framework. Results Vaccination was associated with >90% lower hospitalisation risk, shorter stays, and 35 to 55% lower costs. Cost-utility analysis showed vaccination dominated non-vaccination (more QALYs at lower cost). Predictive modelling indicated non-vaccination in higher-risk groups reflected personal choice rather than constrained circumstance. Observed costs exceeded modelled costs (if all vaccinated) by 22%, concentrated among older adults and those with comorbidities. Practical assessment identified a hierarchy from low-risk vaccination rewards to higher-risk surcharges and benefit restrictions. Conclusion Vaccination was impactful and cost-effective; non-vaccination in higher-risk groups reflected personal choice. Responsibility-sensitive approaches may be justified where choice is demonstrable, impacts clear, and mechanisms proportionate, fair, and feasible. Incentive-based mechanisms offer lower-risk starting points than punitive designs. The framework offers policymakers a tool to weigh accountability, fairness, and solidarity in health-financing policy. Key Words COVID-19 vaccination; personal responsibility; luck egalitarianism; health insurance; South Africa; priority-setting

Objectives To compare hospital claims and costs for major tobacco associated diseases with ICD 10 F17 tobacco dependence coding in Indonesian national health insurance claims and to assess whether the insurer records tobacco addiction or mainly pays for its complications. Design Retrospective claims based observational study using routinely collected administrative claims reported according to STROBE and the RECORD extension. Setting Indonesian national health insurance scheme Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional including referral hospital and primary care claims from 2015 to 2023. Participants A national mental health claims sample of 54820 members with at least one ICD 10 mental or behavioral F code diagnosis weighted to 1032022 members and 2074277 referral hospital visits. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome was verified claim costs in USD for hospital visits with a primary diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease J44 or tracheal bronchial or lung cancer C33 to C34 or ischemic heart disease I20 to I25 or stroke I60 to I69. Secondary outcomes were counts of ICD 10 F17 tobacco dependence coding and the disease to F17 coding ratio. Results The four tobacco associated disease groups accounted for 13946 visits among 5223 patients and USD 4.20 million in verified costs representing 6.0 percent of hospital spending in the sample. Weighted costs were USD 74.7 million of which cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease accounted for 95 percent. F17 appeared in only 51 referral hospital encounters and 26 primary care encounters. Only 2 of 5223 patients with these tobacco associated diseases or 0.04 percent were ever coded with F17. Conclusions The Indonesian national insurer paid substantially for tobacco associated morbidity while tobacco dependence was almost never coded. Smoking related diseases were reimbursed but tobacco dependence treatment was not captured as a financed care target. Embedding brief cessation care reimbursable pharmacotherapy and routine F17 coding into primary care could help shift tobacco related expenditure from downstream complications toward addiction care. Keywords tobacco dependence smoking cessation F17 coding health expenditure administrative claims Indonesia

Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affects 1-in-7 pregnancies globally and is associated with significant short- and long-term health consequences. Although health behaviour change interventions can effectively reduce these risks, a significant implementation gap exists in translating this evidence into routine practice. Bump2Baby and Me (B2B&Me) was a mobile health (mHealth) coaching intervention provided to women at-risk of GDM from early pregnancy through to 1-year postpartum. B2B&Me Plus (B2B&Me+) aims to refine, implement and evaluate the implementation of this personalised intervention across 4 countries (Ireland, Spain, Poland and Norway) with differing health systems and population profiles. Methods This study employs a hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness design using a non-randomised ABA block approach within a longitudinal cohort. Participants will be screened using the Monash machine learning GDM screening tool (MMLGDST). During the intervention (Block B), women at risk of developing GDM will be offered access to a smartphone-based coaching application featuring 1:1 synchronous sessions, asynchronous text and video messaging along with a Bluetooth-enabled weighing scale for self-monitoring. Support continues from early pregnancy through to nine months postpartum. The studys primary objective is to evaluate reach, adoption, implementation and maintenance of the B2B&Me+ intervention programme when delivered within routine maternity care. Implementation success will be assessed using the RE-AIM framework, while secondary outcomes will assess intervention effectiveness. The study will examine population-level uptake at each site, evaluate the benefits and costs of implementation across varying contexts, and analyse how four different referral methods, randomised at the site level, affect uptake. In addition, a European implementation toolkit will be developed to provide health services with scalable strategies to bridge the evidence-to-practice gap. Discussion This study will contribute to a growing literature on the implementation of a successfully trialled mHealth intervention in a real-world context. Understanding variation in both intervention and implementation success within a routine maternity care context across diverse settings will inform the development of an implementation toolkit to support health services in reducing the incidence of GDM and improving maternal and child health outcomes.

Abstract Background: Despite considerable reductions in under-five mortality during the Millennium Development Goal era, progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 remains uneven across Africa. Identifying countries at greatest risk of missing the target is essential for prioritizing interventions and resource allocation. Methods: A Bayesian spatial forecasting ecological study was conducted using 2024 country-level data from 49 African countries obtained from UNICEF. Spatial dependence was assessed using Global Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association. Bayesian structured additive regression models with Gaussian, Gamma, and Exponential likelihoods were fitted using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) and compared using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), and conditional predictive ordinates. Posterior exceedance probabilities were estimated, an SDG Failure Index (SFI) and a Priority Intervention Index (PII) were developed, and Bayesian posterior predictive simulations were performed to estimate country-specific probabilities of attaining SDG 3.2 by 2030. Results: Significant spatial clustering of under-five mortality was observed with (Moran's I = 0.355, p < 0.001), and hotspots in Benin, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The Gamma model provided the best fit (DIC = 114.92; WAIC = 111.71). Diarrhoea was the only significant predictor (posterior mean=0.030; 95% credible interval: 0.004-0.056). Twenty-three countries (46.9%) were classified as high risk, whereas only five (10.2%) had achieved SDG 3.2. West Africa recorded the highest mean mortality (7.05%) and North Africa the lowest (1.64%). Bayesian projections indicated that only five countries were likely to achieve SDG 3.2 by 2030, while 41 (83.7%) were unlikely to do so. Conclusion: Considerable geographical inequalities in under-five mortality persist across Africa, and most countries remain off-track for achieving SDG 3.2 by 2030. The integration of exceedance probability mapping, the SDG Failure Index, the Priority Intervention Index, and Bayesian probability forecasting provides a practical framework for monitoring progress and prioritizing countries requiring accelerated action towards achieving SDG 3.2.

Background: Chronic illness is a major public health concern in Europe, the United States, and other high-income countries, limiting individuals capacity for self-management and health promotion. Empowerment interventions improve health outcomes while reducing healthcare utilization. Aim: This study assessed the feasibility of implementing the Bodyknowledging Program, a broadly applicable health promotion intervention developed in Norway, at the community level in the US to evaluate participants experiences, program components, and self-management outcomes among adults living with chronic illness, and to identify the programs strengths and areas for cultural adaptation to inform its cross-national transferability. Methods: A multi-method feasibility design was used, including a group of participants living with various chronic illnesses. Reflexive thematic analysis was applied to analyze focus group data, examining participants experiences, program components, and outcomes. Facilitators field notes and post-intervention survey data were additional data sources. Results: Three themes emerged through the thematic analysis: (1) acceptability of the BKPs health promotion content and approaches among US participants, (2) implementation of the BKP intervention in a US community context, and (3) demand and ideas for continued implementation. Facilitator field notes identified challenges in implementing the hybrid format. Survey data confirmed that participants strongly agreed that the program enhanced their ability to recognize bodily signs and tolerance limits, manage symptoms, prevent deterioration, and promote their health. Participants reached consensus on the value of the programs content, materials, organization, and communication strategies. Conclusion: The Bodyknowledging Program is feasible and well-suited for implementation in the US. This community-based empowerment intervention leverages existing but unutilized human resources to strengthen self-management and health promotion among people with chronic illnesses across diagnostic categories. Further research across diverse settings is recommended to support broader dissemination.

Although a strand of scholarship on pandemic prevention flourished in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a theoretically informed empirical analysis of global governance entrepreneurs and practitioner perspectives is lacking. This gap is salient given the need to consider the nuances, political realities, and feasibility of real-world governance practice, particularly with the recent adoption of the Pandemic Agreement under the World Health Organisation. In this paper, nexus governance and regime complex theory guides an analysis of recommendations for potential real-world governance responses for pandemic prevention from wildlife trade for human consumption elicited from global governance entrepreneurs and practitioners through semi-structured interviews and document analysis. Recommendations on future governance practice largely focused on strengthening coordination across various policy sectors to improve use of existing institutional arrangements, with particular emphasis on better integration of the biodiversity conservation policy sector within global pandemic prevention governance, as well as reform of the World Organisation for Animal Health and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora. With governance deficits for prevention of pandemics emerging from the wildlife trade left by the now largely concluded Pandemic Agreement, a renewed research agenda on shared governance pathways becomes paramount.

Background Personal choice in health behaviours raises difficult questions: when individuals freely decline effective preventive interventions, who should bear the resulting costs? This tension is acute in insurance systems where resources are pooled, yet all health systems pursuing Universal Health Coverage must navigate the boundary between collective solidarity and individual accountability. During the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines were freely available to members of South African private medical schemes, creating conditions in which non-vaccination could plausibly be examined as a matter of personal choice rather than constrained access. This study applied a luck egalitarian framework to assess whether non-vaccination reflected personal choice or constrained circumstance, and to quantify resulting excess costs. Methods A contextual review assessed barriers to vaccination. Using de-identified claims data for approximately 550,000 individuals (March 2020 to December 2022), logistic regression estimated each person's predicted probability of vaccination based on demographic and clinical factors, with observed and predicted rates compared across strata to infer choice versus circumstance. A zero-inflated negative binomial model estimated predicted expenditure among vaccinated members, applied to the full population to simulate universal vaccination. Excess costs were calculated across predicted probability strata. Results Predicted and observed vaccination rates were closely aligned, suggesting that residual non-vaccination in higher-probability groups reflected personal choice rather than constrained circumstance. Observed costs exceeded predicted costs by 22% under universal vaccination, concentrated among older adults and those with comorbidities. Among those with a 60 to 70% predicted probability of vaccination, observed costs exceeded predicted costs by 127.6%. In contrast, among younger, low-risk members, predicted costs slightly exceeded observed expenditure, as vaccination costs were not offset by reduced hospitalisation. Conclusion Risk pooling depends on solidarity, yet non-vaccination due to personal choice shifts costs in ways that challenge fairness in community-rated insurance. These findings highlight the need for transparent deliberation about when personal responsibility should inform equitable health financing design.

The focus was on leadership, mentoring and promotion. Using short, structured activities alongside small-group discussion, the participants were encouraged to reflect on leadership, mentoring and the perceived gap between being ready and being recognised for promotion. Descriptive survey findings and free-text reflections highlight the demand for structured peer support, reciprocal mentoring opportunities, and clearer, more transparent promotion processes. Following the event, we performed a structured review of the impact. This highlighted that the workshop participants reported that the event allowed for greater self-awareness into their own leadership approaches, a stronger commitment to purposeful mentoring, and greater confidence and renewed motivation to take concrete steps towards promotion.

Objectives: Estimate the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of adolescent-reported food insecurity experiences from 2019-2021. Methods: Repeat cross-sectional data were collected in November-December 2019, 2020, and 2021 from adolescents aged 10-17 years living in the ten Canadian provinces (n = 11,057). The prevalence of ten items and five food insecurity subconstructs based on the 10-item Child Food Insecurity Experiences Scale was estimated. Weighted multinomial logistic regression assessed associations between sociodemographic characteristics and food insecurity experiences as a four-level (no, few, several, or many experiences) variable. Results: Across 2019-2021 among adolescents, the prevalence of worrying about food scarcity ranged between 18.4%-22.5%, worrying about parental/guardian ability to get food ranged between 22.8%-26.9%, and not being able to get the food they wanted ranged between 23.5%-26.1%. Close to or above one in four adolescents affirmed the uncertainty (range: 26.9%-29.9%) and compromised diet quality or preferences (range: 23.5%-26.1%) subconstructs. In 2021, adolescents identifying as Black had a higher relative risk ratio of few food insecurity experiences (adjusted relative risk ratio (ARRR): 2.04 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.47], p-value: <0.01) and adolescents identifying as Indigenous had a higher relative risk ratio of several food insecurity experiences (2.38 [1.10, 5.15], p-value 0.03) compared to adolescents identifying as White. The relative risk ratio of having few, several, or many food insecurity experiences also differed by age, sex-at-birth, perceived income adequacy, and region. Conclusion: The type and number of experiences reported underscores the value of directly measuring food insecurity. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity's adverse consequences are warranted.

Objectives Increased risk of childhood obesity up to age six years has been linked to higher maternal allostatic load (AL), the physical manifestation of repeated stress exposure. However, associations are less evident when using psychological stress indicators, and data mainly come from higher income countries. Using psychological and physiological stress markers, this study evaluates maternal stress exposures and child risk of obesity in Peruvian women and their children, ages 5 to 15 years, living in a disadvantaged urban area. Methods Maternal stress exposures included mental distress (12-item General Health Questionnaire scores of 5+ for moderate/high and <5 for no/low distress) and AL (lower/moderate/higher AL assessed from Latent Profile Analysis of hair cortisol, BMI, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure). Child outcomes included BMI-for-age and waist circumference-for-age z scores (BAZ and WCAZ). Linear regression analyses were conducted, adjusting for confounders and reported as coefficients and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results Versus mothers with no/low distress, those with moderate/high distress had children with 0.40 (95% CI: -0.66,-0.13) and 0.32 lower (-0.53,-0.11) child BAZ and WCAZ respectively. Versus lower AL mothers, moderate AL mothers had children with 1.15 (0.41,1.88) and 0.74 (0.20,1.28) greater BAZ and WCAZ while higher AL mothers had children with 1.43 (0.95,1.92) and 0.91 (0.50,1.32) greater BAZ and WCAZ respectively. Conclusions Children of mothers with higher AL were at greater risk of overweight or obesity, which may add to the rising burdens of non-communicable diseases in resource-constrained settings as well as the related social, economic, and public health costs.

Health workforce performance is central to service quality, yet little empirical work has examined how performance management systems operate for physiotherapists in rehabilitation services in low- and middle-income settings. This cross-sectional study assessed the current state, perceived effectiveness, and process gaps of performance management systems among physiotherapists working in public rehabilitation centers in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A pretested semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 105 physiotherapists between September and October 2025. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize participant characteristics and performance management indicators. Wilson 95% confidence intervals were estimated for key proportions. A nine-item exploratory performance management system maturity score was constructed from process indicators. Fisher exact tests with Cramer's V were used to examine associations with perceived system effectiveness, and exploratory logistic regression estimated odds ratios for effective or moderately effective performance management. The mean age of respondents was 31.6 years, 56 of 105 were male, and 85 of 105 had graduate or postgraduate qualifications. Formal performance management systems were reported by 102 of 105 respondents (97.1%, 95% CI 91.9-99.0). Standardized appraisal timing and method, assessment form use, performance planning, and formal evaluation systems were each reported by about 60-70% of participants. Reward-performance linkage was perceived as motivating by 97 of 105 respondents (92.4%, 95% CI 85.7-96.1). Overall, 81 of 105 respondents (77.1%, 95% CI 68.2-84.1) rated the system as effective or moderately effective. Training recipient category was associated with perceived effectiveness (Fisher exact p=0.0035; Cramer's V=0.363), as was perceived appropriateness of the process (p=0.0323; Cramer's V=0.258). The maturity score was not independently associated with perceived effectiveness in exploratory regression. Public rehabilitation centers in Dhaka appear to have formal performance management systems, but the systems are only moderately developed. Strengthening training coverage, transparent evaluation criteria, routine feedback, and formal system review may improve staff confidence in performance management processes.

Background The prevalence of chronic heart failure is increasing in Singapore and is associated with frequent hospitalisations, high costs, and impaired quality of life. Patient empowerment interventions for chronic diseases, which are structured approaches that enable patients to actively engage in and influence their care, have demonstrated promising effects on health-related outcomes. In chronic heart failure, however, many interventions focus on selected aspects of empowerment, and there remains limited synthesis of which approaches are most acceptable, preferred, and effective as comprehensive intervention packages. This protocol describes the methods for a study to identify an empowerment-based intervention for adults with chronic heart failure that is both contextually suitable and cost-effective in Singapore. Methods We will use a staged, sequential design comprising three objectives. Objective one is to conduct a systematic review (PROSPERO registration number CRD420251249957) and meta-analysis to synthesise international evidence of the effectiveness of empowerment-based interventions for adults with chronic heart failure. Objective two is to complete a mixed-methods study, including semi-structured interviews with chronic heart failure patients, as well as their caregivers, to identify empowerment-related needs, barriers and facilitators in local chronic heart failure care. This will be followed by a discrete choice experiment to elicit patients preferences for features of an empowerment-based intervention. Objective three is to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the proposed intervention from the perspective of the Singapore health system. Discussion This series of studies integrates international evidence with local stakeholder perspectives and patient preferences to inform a feasible, patient-centred empowerment intervention for chronic heart failure in Singapore. The findings will inform intervention design and provide policy-relevant evidence on costs, health outcomes, and implementation decisions for empowerment-based chronic heart failure care in Singapore.

Objective: To assess the impact of a hybrid RSV immunization strategy on hospitalizations, pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, outpatient visits, and mortality due to LRTI among infants under one year of age in Bogota. Methods: We conducted an ecological interrupted time-series study using weekly surveillance data from Bogota from EW 1 of 2023 to EW 24 of 2026 (181 weeks). Outcomes included weekly rates of all-cause viral LRTI-related general hospitalizations, pediatric ICU admissions, outpatient visits, and deaths among infants younger than one year. Segmented negative binomial regression models adjusted for secular trends, seasonality using Fourier terms, and autocorrelation were used to estimate changes associated with maternal RSVpreF vaccination and nirsevimab implementation. Counterfactual analyses were performed to estimate cases averted and relative risk reductions. Results: Compared with the same period in 2025, the 2026 LRTI hospitalization rate decreased significantly (rate ratio [RR] 0.66; 95% CI 0.64-0.68), as did pediatric ICU admissions (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.73-0.85) and outpatient visits (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.77-0.79). Interrupted time-series analyses identified a significant weekly decline in hospitalization trends following maternal RSVpreF introduction (3.9% per week; p=0.023) and a smaller but significant decline in ICU admissions (-2.8% per week; p=0.039). The cumulative relative reduction in hospitalizations was estimated at 47.1% (95% CI 13.9-70.4), corresponding to 7.605 hospitalizations averted over the post-intervention period (EW 47/2025-EW 24/2026). No statistically significant changes were observed for outpatient visits or mortality. Conclusions: Implementation of a hybrid RSV prevention strategy was associated with a substantial reduction in severe LRTI among infants during the first respiratory season following introduction in Bogota. These findings provide the first real-world population-level evidence from Latin America supporting hybrid RSV immunization as a feasible and potentially cost-effective strategy for reducing severe infant respiratory disease in middle-income settings. Keywords: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); Maternal RSV vaccination; Nirsevimab; Hybrid immunization strategy; Population impact; Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI); Interrupted time series ( ITS); Bogota, Colombia.

Background Timely assessment, classification, and escalation of public health events are essential for effective outbreak response, yet decision-making after event detection remains challenging because of fragmented guidance and variable interpretation of escalation criteria.To strengthen public health emergency management, Kenya developed the Decision-Making Tool for Public Health Emergencies (DMT-PHE), a framework for event assessment, classification, notification, and escalation. An artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled version, the DMT-PHE AI Agent, was subsequently developed to operationalize the framework through decision support. This study describes the development of the DMT-PHE AI Agent and evaluates its performance, usability, safety, and user acceptability. Methods The DMT-PHE AI Agent was developed using a retrieval-augmented generation architecture supported by a curated knowledge base derived from the validated DMT-PHE framework and related public health guidance. A simulation-based pilot evaluation was conducted among 11 public health professionals who independently assessed three standardized outbreak scenarios. AI-generated recommendations were compared with expert-defined gold standards. Outcomes included concordance, response-action coverage, citation performance, safety, usability, and user acceptability. Results Thirty-three scenario evaluations were completed. The AI Agent achieved an overall weighted concordance score of 0.924, with exact agreement of 90.9% for Public Health Events of Initially Unknown Etiology, 81.8% for Rift Valley fever, and 90.9% for Mpox. Citation support was provided in 78.8% of interactions, with no incorrect citations or major safety concerns identified. The mean System Usability Scale score was 85.2, while participants reported high trust (4.27/5), contextual relevance (4.55/5), and perceived time savings (4.82/5). Conclusions The DMT-PHE AI Agent demonstrated that a nationally validated public health emergency decision framework can be successfully translated into an AI-enabled decision-support system. These findings provide early evidence that AI can augment public health emergency decision-making by delivering structured, transparent, and context-specific recommendations while maintaining human oversight, offering a practical model for operationalizing national public health guidance.

Background: Evaluating outbreak detection models is a key component of syndromic surveillance. However, balancing timeliness, predictive performance, and local surveillance constraints remains a major challenge. We developed and assessed whether stacking ensemble approaches, which integrate multiple outbreak detection methods, can improve the timeliness and predictive performance of influenza-like illness (ILI) surge detection. Methods: We developed a two-stage stacking ensemble framework to detect early warning of ILI surges in city-level Primary Health Care encounter time series from Brazil (2022 to 2025). Epidemic thresholds were defined using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM). In the first stage, multiple outbreak detection models (ODMs) generated warnings of unusual ILI activity. In the second, these warnings were then used as inputs to three supervised meta-classifiers: Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). For comparison, a Majority Voting (MV) aggregation is also examined. Timeliness, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values are evaluated to measure each model's ability to anticipate epidemic periods of varying intensity in 2025. Robustness was further assessed using simulated outbreak scenarios with varying magnitudes and durations. Findings: We identified 5,765 ILI surge onsets across 5,365 Brazilian municipalities in 2025. Compared with individual ODMs and MV, stacking ensemble meta-classifiers anticipated up to 33% of surge onsets three weeks in advance (an average improvement of 15 percentage points) while reducing missed detections to <10%. They achieved sensitivity >90%, while maintaining balanced specificity >80%, PPV >65%, and NPV >99%. Improvements were greatest for very high-intensity surges, with missed detections reduced by more than half compared with individual ODMs. In simulated outbreak scenarios, the MLP and XGB classifiers remained robust despite being trained on fewer than half of all simulated surge events, consistently outperforming individual detection methods and simpler integration approaches. Interpretation: We provide a practical framework for integrating complementary ODMs into a single, robust early warning decision. By improving both timeliness and predictive performance without requiring additional surveillance data or resources, this approach offers a scalable methodological upgrade for syndromic surveillance systems and supports more reliable public health decision-making. Funding: The Rockefeller Foundation (award 2023 PPI 007 to MB-N); Brazilian National Research Council - CNPq (408775/2024-6); MB-N, PIPR, RFSA are CNPq fellows.

OBJECTIVE To examine parents perceptions regarding the introduction of a social media ban for children and to identify factors associated with these attitudes. METHOD A cross-sectional study was carried out in Greece in April 2026. Potential predictors of parents views on a social media ban included (a) sociodemographic variables (such as gender, age, educational attainment, and financial status), (b) social media usage patterns (number of accounts, daily usage duration, and posting frequency), and (c) level of political engagement (how often participants follow political news and discuss political issues). Outcome variables comprised parents agreement with the ban, level of awareness about its implementation, perceived necessity for additional measures, confidence in the ban effectiveness, perceived effects on children lives, and parents familiarity with digital parental control tools. RESULTS Overall, 68.0% of parents supported implementing a social media ban for children under 15. A large majority (91.8%) expressed the need for more governmental information regarding the ban. Additionally, 89.3% believed that further measures beyond the ban are required to effectively address the issue. Suggested measures included digital literacy courses in schools (86.1%), active parental involvement in digital literacy (74.6%), prohibition of inappropriate content (77.9%), reasonable parental limits on social media use (73.8%), and restriction of addictive platform features (73.0%). Older parents demonstrated greater confidence in the effectiveness of the ban. Furthermore, age, financial status, number of social media accounts, and time spent online were positively associated with perceived impacts of the ban. Younger age was linked to greater parental familiarity with digital control tools, while having more social media accounts was also positively associated with such familiarity. CONCLUSIONS There is a clear need for comprehensive, evidence-based policy approaches that combine regulation, education, and shared responsibility among stakeholders. Policymakers should leverage existing public support for child protection while investing in digital literacy initiatives, empowering parents, and strengthening regulatory oversight of social media platforms to achieve long-term and equitable results.

The introduction of salt iodization is associated with improved health and socioeconomic outcomes, but is not yet universally adopted and not always sustained. Using a quasi-experimental event study with difference-in-differences over space and time, we quantify the impacts of iodine deficiency in utero and infancy on childhood mortality and later academic achievement in Ethiopia, comparing cohorts born just before and after the May 1998 border closure that interrupted access to iodized salt. Rural children with fewer months of early-life exposure to iodized salt scored lower on standardized secondary-school exams, especially in districts with low environmental iodine, with excess deaths emerging in infancy and persisting through early childhood. These findings reveal the long-term benefits of salt iodization for health and education, especially for people with low intake of iodine from environmental sources.

Background: Public health initiatives increasingly target multiple overlapping high-risk groups to maximize impact. However, a common challenge in modelling these initiatives is to capture these overlapping risk factors, leading to potential misallocation of resources and biased effectiveness estimates. Using China's tuberculosis (TB) control program as an example, this study explores different possible frameworks to account for population heterogeneity and risk overlap. Methods: We examined four risk allocation frameworks: (i) Direct Summation (DS), a simple additive benchmark; (ii) Probabilistic Union Deduplication (PUD), using inclusion-exclusion principles; (iii) Risk population combination (RPC), modeling interaction effects; and (iv) Agent-Based Framework (ABF), a granular microsimulation. To show how these frameworks could be used in epidemiological modelling, we embedded each within a deterministic transmission model of TB epidemiology in China, to simulate the impact of China's National Tuberculosis Strategic Plan (NTSP). We explored each framework when implemented in both static and dynamic versions. We compared them using methodological principles and indicators of intervention cost (screening volume) and benefits (cases/deaths averted). Results: Under the static version, the detection yield of active cases followed a consistent hierarchy: DS > PUD > RPC {approx} ABF. The DS method systematically overestimated yields by double-counting overlapping populations, while PUD corrected for overlap but ignored interaction. The RPC and ABF methods provided the most granular estimates by incorporating Risk population combinations. Additionally, comparing static versus dynamic versions revealed that for the same multi-risk screening framework, mortality reductions remained stable and incidence reductions varied significantly. Conclusion: This study presents potential screening frameworks for overlapping risk populations. The RPC method offers optimal balance of real-world plausibility and computational efficiency. We propose the dynamic RPC method as the preferred tool for routine analysis where multimorbidity and intersectional risks exist, providing a robust evidence base for optimizing resource allocation in heterogeneous populations.